A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
